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New Analysis of NY Adult-Use Regulations—Is the Market Doomed to Fail?

Market analysis finds Illicit cannabis is cannibalizing New York’s legal market and examines the state’s current rocky trajectory.




A Curaleaf medical marijuana dispensary is seen in the town of Newburgh, NY in 2018.

New York cannabis market is projected to be worth $5 – $7 billion, yet limited access to the regulated market is stifling growth and delaying the absorption of the illicit market. Acreage Holdings, Inc.  (CSE: ACRG.A.U, ACRG.B.U), (OTC: ACRHF, ACRDF), a New-York based an MSO of cannabis ‎cultivation and retailing facilities in the U.S.m, and the company behind national brand, The Botanist, released a New York Illicit Cannabis Market Absorption Analysis that examines the state’s current rocky trajectory.

Acreage, one of the nation’s leading vertically integrated MSOs led by CEO Peter Caldini, retained MPG Consulting, a strategic advisory firm in cannabis and hemp, to examine New York’s current adult-use cannabis regulations and market dynamics. The result is a detailed analysis spotlighting the economic implications of current policy and demonstrating the importance of opening business access to the market, including the significant positive impact of one of NY’s vital, existing resources: Registered Organizations (ROs).

“If New Yorkers and New York state lawmakers and regulators want a safe, open, thriving cannabis marketplace, the state must expand access to more operators, including Registered Organizations,” said Bryan Murray, Executive Vice President of Government Relations, Acreage. “The state tried to initiate an inclusive cannabis market based on restorative justice for those historically impacted by the War on Drugs; unfortunately, the delayed licensing rollout put the state’s legal industry in a precarious position as illicit actors fill the vacuum and serve consumers. New York is expected to be one of the largest cannabis markets in the U.S. There is room for all players, and New York has a full bench of players ready to play the game. Why won’t they let us help them win?”

Despite NY lawmakers and regulators’ intentions to create an inclusive adult-use cannabis market, the State’s current regulations are creating a significant retail bottleneck and allowing the illicit market to proliferate. According to the report:

  • With the lack of retail access under NY’s current regulations, illicit market operators will capture $7.2 Billion in revenue (2023 – 2030) and the market will lose over 20K jobs per year and over $2.6 Billion in state tax revenue over 8 years.

  • New retail licenses are opening too slowly and during great supply chain uncertainty causing needless operating risks, uncertain inventory sourcing and more.

  • NY has too great a demand for adult-use cannabis—multiple projections indicate a $6+Billion market—allowing ROs to enter the marketplace will not risk the viability of social equity applicants but enhance offerings and benefit all market participants.

Based on New York’s current adult-use existing and proposed regulations, according to the report:

  • Illicit market operators capture $7.2 billion in revenue between 2023 and 2030 due to the lack of legitimate retail outlets;

  • New York will see a loss of up to 20,600 direct cannabis and ancillary jobs per year;

  • New York will see more than $2.6 billion in state tax revenue lost over eight years; and

  • New licensees will open during great supply chain uncertainty causing needless operating risks.


Additionally, the report offers recommendations and potential scenarios backed by data highlighting the impacts of differing licensing policies on regulated and illicit market share, tax revenue, and employment.

Below is the full press release and the report is available here. Learn more about Acreage at



Cannaconvo with Peter Su of Green Check Verified

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